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《转折与变局》一书研究了中国经济金融正在发生的转折与变局。人口结构变化、全球经济再平衡和新技术革命的兴起,正在深刻地改变过去三十年里形成的全球资本流动与分工体系。全球既有供应链与贸易流的格局正在逆转,新工业革命也正在改变资源的配置机制,重塑经济生活中资本—劳动的均衡关系,需要我们在技术变革的大潮中重新定义政府与市场。中国经济原有增长动力悄然瓦解,新动力的培育和形成又非一朝之事,金融体系和风险正在朝着复杂化的方向发展与演进,但金融转向服务于创新驱动战略,是金融变局的基本方向。中国经济崛起动摇了国际货币与资本体系的基础,全球货币资本治理机制的中国方案正得到各国和市场的积极响应。因此,中国经济与金融的转折与变局,同时带动全球货币与资本走上新的变局之路。1.作者在《中国社会科学》《经济研究》《金融研究》等期刊和主流财经媒体发表学术论文、研究报告和评论文章两百多篇。其著作《金融学原理》已出第五版,十多年来销量稳定,深受读者喜爱。2.本书提出了“有计划的市场经济”“债券违约是中国债券市场走向成熟不得不经历的浴火与炼狱”“人民币国际化需要坚挺的人民币”等鲜明观点。3.国家金融与发展实验室智库系列图书,该智库以国家资产负债表著称。“稳增长”既需解“近忧”,又要有“远虑”保持目前的经济增长率,尽管不会对中国金融体系造成较大的系统性风险,但这并不是说,已采取的稳增长政策毫无意义。毕竟,增长率进一步下降对金融风险的影响是非线性的,在存在较高杠杆水平、经济增长率接近潜在水平时,经济增长率进一步下降就可能产生金融风险加倍的影响。因此,增长率进一步从7.4%下降到6%,对金融稳定的不利影响,会比从原来10%以上降到7%的影响大得多。更何况,宏观经济政策一直强调要预调,而不是在风险全面爆发后充当消防员的扑救调整。这或许是李克强总理指出2015年是“稳增长调结构的紧要之年”的重要依据。在此背景下,无论是中央经济工作会议,还是总理的《政府工作报告》,都把稳增长放在了*突出的位置。至于如何稳增长,我认为,既要解近忧,又要有远虑,需要远近接合。所谓解近忧,就是实施有力度的积极财政政策、松紧适度的稳健货币政策,稳定国内总需求,改善企业的现金流,切实化解产能过剩和潜在金融风险。所谓远虑,就是通过完善宏观经济政策,健全稳增长的长效机制,唯如此,方能降低经济的总量均衡与稳定对扭曲性财政货币政策的依赖,避免达到短期稳增长而导致经济加杠杆和进一步加大金融风险的后果,又能提高经济自身应对需求下滑、外部冲击的灵活性。解近忧的稳增长之策是什么?2014年中央经济工作会议提出稳增长需要实行有力度的积极财政政策、松紧适度的稳健货币政策。李克强总理将这样的宏观政策具体化和指标化了:2015年广义货币M2的增长率为12%,根据实际情况可略高一些;安排财政赤字1.62万亿元,赤字率从2014年的2.1%提高到2.3%。但财长认为,由于2015年有2000多亿元的可用支出,这实际上会使2015年的赤字率达到2.7%左右。不管是2.3%还是2.7%,都体现了积极财政政策的力度在加大。通过财政支出的乘数效应、赤字对银行信贷的扩张效应,公共支出的扩张会弥补萎缩的私人支出。至于曾被市场深为忧

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